WORKING PAPER 94 | Overlooked Industrialisation Opportunity? How Global South can Leverage Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a core component of achieving net-zero, and the only solution we have to address both residual and historical emissions. Since 2018, the sector has expanded rapidly, now exceeding 600 firms, growing by over 200% annually, and surpassing $10 billion in cumulative market value. However, activity remains largely concentrated in advanced economies. This paper examines the potential of the Global South to participate in and benefit from this emerging industry. Developing regions hold around 70-75% of global biomass residues, 65-70% of geological CO₂ storage capacity, and abundant low-cost renewable energy, offering strong conditions for scaling durable CDR approaches such as biochar carbon removal, BECCS, DACCS, and enhanced rock weathering. Under plausible 2050 deployment levels of 1.5-5 GtCO₂ yr⁻¹, the sector could sustain 3-9.5 million jobs and generate $180-600 billion in annual value added by 2050, comparable to major industrial sectors in the Global North. Case studies from Bolivia, Brazil, and Kenya highlight early configurations where CDR combines removals with rural employment, technological learning, and improvements in soil and air quality. As frameworks such as the EU Carbon Removal Certification Framework and the Paris Agreement’s Article 6 mature, aligning domestic policy, finance, and governance could enable developing economies to capture a significant share of the market. Positioned as a green window of opportunity, CDR offers a pathway to low-carbon industrialisation that departs from extractive growth models while contributing to durable mitigation, technological upgrading, and poverty alleviation.

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