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WORKING PAPER 104 | On ‘Green Premature Deindustrialisation’
Green industrialisation has emerged as a promising pathway for developing countries to reconcile growth imperatives with environmental sustainability. This article critically examines this proposition through an analysis of Brazil’s wind turbine industry, which has often been celebrated as a successful case of green industrial development. The article demonstrates that Brazil’s experience reveals fundamental vulnerabilities that…
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AMIR LEBDIOUI CONTRIBUTES TO OPEC FUND’S 50TH ANNIVERSARY PUBLICATION | WHAT MY MOTHER’S COUSCOUS TEACHES US ABOUT GREEN INDUSTRIAL POLICY
In a new contribution to the OPEC Fund for International Development’s 50th anniversary publication, TIDE Director Amir Lebdioui reflects on a deceptively simple question: why do some development strategies succeed while others fail, even when countries appear to follow the same policy “recipe”? Drawing on examples from South Korea, China, Chile, Costa Rica and Viet…
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WORKING PAPER 103 | Who’s in the Driver’s Seat?
The green industrialisation race is unfolding within a transformed geopolitical landscape, marked by intensifying great-power competition, the fragmentation of multilateral trade governance, and China’s emergence as the world’s leading producer of electric vehicles (EVs), batteries, and other clean technologies. As Chinese firms increasingly globalise the production of these technologies through overseas manufacturing investment, new opportunities…
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WORKING PAPER 102 | Breaking Fiscal Barriers
The climate crisis and the energy transition pose significant challenges for peripheral countries. In the case of Latin America, this situation is exacerbated by regional fiscal and institutional limitations, along with specific challenges in financing large-scale green investments. These vulnerabilities, known as the triple vulnerability, encompass environmental, external, and fiscal dimensions (Bedossa, 2023), leading to…
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WORKING PAPER 94 | UMA OPORTUNIDADE DE INDUSTRIALIZAÇÂO NEGLIGENCIADA?
A remoção de dióxido de carbono (CDR, na sigla em inglês) é um componente central para o alcance do net-zero e a única solução disponível para lidar tanto com as emissões residuais quanto com as históricas. Desde 2018, o setor expandiu-se rapidamente, superando 600 empresas, crescendo a uma taxa anual superior a 200% e ultrapassando…
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WORKING PAPER 101 | Which countries should stop extracting oil and gas first?
Despite the scientific consensus that fossil fuel production requires drastic curtailment to avoid exceeding 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, the supply-side question of which countries should start phasing out which fuels, and in what sequence, remains without a rigorous and comprehensive methodology addressing, capacity, responsibility concerns, and ecological impact altogether. This paper introduces the PACER index…
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WORKING PAPER 100 | Soon to be announced
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WORKING PAPER 99 | For an industrial policy renaissance in the Organization of Islamic Cooperation countries
We study the long-run growth outcomes of the diverse group of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation countries and argue that to achieve high sustained growth, the standard growth recipe is not sufficient. This recipe largely fails to tackle pervasive market failures such as coordination failures and information asymmetries, stifling export diversification, innovation, and growth. We…
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BLUE PAPER | AI Startups Value Creation Blue Paper
Currently, the global artificial intelligence (AI) industry is at a historic turning point: annual investment has exceeded $400 billion and is projected to cross the $4 trillion mark within the next five years. Based on in-depth tracking and full-sample analysis of nearly 6,000 AI startups worldwide, OxValue.ai and the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese…
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WORKING PAPER 98 | The Jaguar after the Tigers?
Mexico stands at a pivotal moment in its economic development. Decades of integration into global value chains have yielded a sizeable manufacturing base and important productive capabilities across automotive, aerospace, electronics, medical devices, and advanced agroindustry. Yet this productive breadth has not translated into sustained productivity gains, endogenous innovation, or broader processes of capability building.…
